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Channel: overconfidence – Behavioural Edge
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Forecasting biases; anchoring & optimism

The start of the year – while company results are awaited – is forecasting time.  There may not be much fresh information, but analysts re-work their figures nevertheless.  We get index forecasts for...

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Behavioural Finance Jan 2013

“Behavioural Finance & Investment”  MSc in Investment Management, Heriot-Watt University 22 January 2013 Presentation by Professor Colin McLean I am going to focus on some practical ways in which...

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Investors should prepare themselves and their assets; not predict

Making an annual review of portfolios is good practice for investors. Unfortunately, January may not be the best time for this. The rosy glow of last year’s performance has too much emotional appeal,...

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Do central banks ever check their forecasting record?

The best analysts work with what they know, and minimise forecasting. Assessing a company’s strengths and the price paid for shares usually beats making projections. So why, when it comes to the...

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Inside investing on the Power of Portfolio Rebalancing

Good article by Gregg Fisher CFA on Inside Investing on the power of rebalancing portfolios. Simple rules can control behavioural biases; addresses overconfidence and the endowment effect....

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New bubbles from misguided monetary policy

Have any lessons been learned following the Great Financial Crisis? Around the world, it looks like new bubbles are growing. Certainly, the crisis showed that central banks and politicians can move...

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