Forecasting biases; anchoring & optimism
The start of the year – while company results are awaited – is forecasting time. There may not be much fresh information, but analysts re-work their figures nevertheless. We get index forecasts for...
View ArticleBehavioural Finance Jan 2013
“Behavioural Finance & Investment” MSc in Investment Management, Heriot-Watt University 22 January 2013 Presentation by Professor Colin McLean I am going to focus on some practical ways in which...
View ArticleInvestors should prepare themselves and their assets; not predict
Making an annual review of portfolios is good practice for investors. Unfortunately, January may not be the best time for this. The rosy glow of last year’s performance has too much emotional appeal,...
View ArticleDo central banks ever check their forecasting record?
The best analysts work with what they know, and minimise forecasting. Assessing a company’s strengths and the price paid for shares usually beats making projections. So why, when it comes to the...
View ArticleInside investing on the Power of Portfolio Rebalancing
Good article by Gregg Fisher CFA on Inside Investing on the power of rebalancing portfolios. Simple rules can control behavioural biases; addresses overconfidence and the endowment effect....
View ArticleNew bubbles from misguided monetary policy
Have any lessons been learned following the Great Financial Crisis? Around the world, it looks like new bubbles are growing. Certainly, the crisis showed that central banks and politicians can move...
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